2023 P1 Registration Balloting Risk

MOE just released the numbers for the 2023 P1 Registration and we will be looking into that. In this article, we will be looking at the potential balloting risk based on the 2022 P1 Registration. We could not use data from earlier years because the P1 Registration does not have Phase 2A(1) and 2A(2) as in earlier years.

The data is sorted based on the number of people applying in a given phase, and mapped against the type of balloting (>2km, 1-2km, or <1km). Then it is all normalised to 1.0, ie. the school with the highest rating will get 1, while others will be from 0 – 1.

It was difficult to analyse the data as it is rather inconsistent. For example, while Pei Hwa Presbyterian has the highest rating in Phase 2A, it only required balloting at 1-2km. But we have decided that it is a high balloting risk even at Phase 2A.

What we have found is only a small fraction of schools balloted at >2km, especially in Phase 2B. That makes sense as the number of places for Phase 2B is now smaller. However, we find that even Phase 2C has fewer schools balloting at >2km! That’s scary.

To use the table, just find the school of interest and read the numbers. Generally the numbers are relative to other schools only in the given Phase, that’s why a 0.28 in Phase 2A is still a Green (>2km) risk while only 0.17 in Phase 2C is a Green (>2km) risk.

In any case, at least we have got last year’s data to do our analysis 🙂

Legend:
RED: Risk of balloting <1km
YELLOW: Risk of balloting 1-2km
GREEN: Risk of balloting >2km
No color: No risk of any balloting at all