2015 P1 Registration Phase 2A(2)

to
 

(a) For a child whose parent or sibling has studied in the primary school of choice

(b) For a child whose parent is a staff member of the primary school of choice

Announcement of Results:

By Thursday, 16 July 2015

Updated 14 July 2015:  Analysis

At the close of this year’s Phase 2A(2), we see 6 schools oversubscribed, with 2 more schools narrowly escaping oversubscription.

Henry Park is the most oversubscribed (42 for 23 places), followed by Ai Tong (49 for 36 places), Nan Hua (43 for 37 places), Catholic High (32 for 30 places), Nanyang (58 for 55 places) and Red Swastika (40 for 38 places).

Yu Neng and Rulang came within a whisker of being over-subscribed.

Hence the good news is that there are no big surprises, other than the following slightly brow-raising outcomes:

  • Yu Neng’s take up for Phase 2A(2) this year is muted (51 for 53 places) compared with last year’s applications (62 for 59 places).
  • Red Swastika’s take up this year is actually 8 lower than last year’s Phase 2A(2) (48 for 59), but its Phase 2A(1) take up rate was 59, compared to last year’s 35.  So, parents who are alumni and hoping to get into Red Swastika in future should note that they should try to get into the school’s Alumni association if they want to avoid balloting in Phase 2A.
  • Catholic High’s take up in Phase 2A(1) this year was 2 less than in 2014, but its Phase 2A(2) take up rate shot up to 32 compared to last year’s 24.  It would appear that for Catholic High, there are many applicants who only qualify for Phase 2A(2) by virtue of sibling affiliation rather than the parents’ alumni status.

In terms of the overall take up rate, as shown on the table below, the top 9 schools have less than 20% of places left for Phases 2B and 2C.  Schools which are oversubscribed in Phase 2A will have at most 40 places left over for these 2 Phases.

We wish the best of luck for those who may have to ballot in Phase 2A(2)!

School 2015 After Phase 2A(2)
APP TUR
Nanyang Primary 105% 90%
Ai Tong 136% 88%
Henry Park Primary 183% 87%
Tao Nan 77% 85%
Rulang Primary 95% 84%
Catholic High 107% 83%
Nan Hua Primary 116% 83%
Red Swastika 105% 83%
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ 0% 81%
Fairfield Methodist Primary 64% 78%
Yu Neng Primary 96% 77%
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) 60% 76%
Rosyth 58% 76%
Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) 60% 75%
Temasek Primary 66% 75%
Xinmin Primary 75% 72%
Pei Chun Public 48% 71%
South View Primary 62% 71%
Anderson Primary 75% 71%
Maha Bodhi 48% 69%
St Hilda’s Primary 49% 68%
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary 54% 67%
River Valley Primary 57% 67%
Kong Hwa 33% 66%
Hong Wen 47% 63%
Jurong Primary 51% 63%
Holy Innocents’ Primary 52% 63%
Gongshang Primary 47% 63%
Radin Mas Primary 41% 63%
Chongfu Primary 41% 63%
Bukit Panjang Primary 48% 63%
Horizon 2% 62%
Raffles Girls’ Primary 38% 62%
Princess Elizabeth Primary 47% 60%
Fengshan Primary 38% 60%
Nan Chiau Primary 25% 60%
Admiralty Primary 37% 60%
Chongzheng Primary 44% 59%
Pasir Ris Primary 35% 59%
Kheng Cheng 30% 59%
Maris Stella High 33% 57%
CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) 37% 57%
Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) 22% 57%
Northland Primary 38% 56%
Keming Primary 35% 56%
Mee Toh 27% 55%
Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary 36% 55%
Ngee Ann Primary 33% 55%
Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary 28% 55%
Jiemin Primary 35% 54%
St Joseph’s Institution Junior 28% 54%
Woodlands Primary 28% 53%
West Grove Primary 12% 53%
Tampines Primary 33% 52%
Canberra Primary 14% 52%
Poi Ching 23% 52%
Yew Tee Primary 20% 52%
Huamin Primary 32% 52%
Tanjong Katong Primary 29% 52%
Lakeside Primary 17% 51%
St Anthony’s Primary 17% 51%
Endeavour Primary 10% 50%
Innova Primary 14% 50%
Zhenghua Primary 25% 50%
De La Salle 23% 50%
Rivervale Primary 21% 50%
Zhangde Primary 22% 50%
White Sands Primary 10% 49%
Corporation Primary 12% 48%
Shuqun Primary 25% 48%
St Andrew’s Junior 28% 48%
Edgefield Primary 13% 47%
Woodgrove Primary 14% 47%
Geylang Methodist School 21% 47%
Jurong West Primary 12% 47%
St Stephen’s 41% 47%
Yumin Primary 25% 47%
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ 20% 46%
Clementi Primary 23% 46%
Qifa Primary 23% 46%
Qihua Primary 17% 46%
Elias Park Primary 19% 46%
Evergreen Primary 9% 46%
Pei Tong Primary 20% 45%
Woodlands Ring Primary 13% 45%
Fuchun Primary 20% 45%
Yangzheng Primary 18% 44%
Greenridge Primary 11% 44%
Xingnan Primary 24% 44%
Telok Kurau Primary 18% 44%
Greendale Primary 8% 43%
Chua Chu Kang Primary 15% 43%
Fuhua Primary 16% 43%
North Vista Primary 2% 43%
Unity Primary 8% 43%
Mayflower Primary 12% 42%
Wellington Primary 11% 42%
Peiying Primary 19% 42%
Gan Eng Seng Primary 9% 42%
East Spring Primary 12% 42%
Bukit View Primary 8% 41%
Punggol Primary 13% 41%
CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel 27% 41%
CHIJ (Katong) Primary 19% 41%
Hougang Primary 9% 41%
Sengkang Green Primary 0% 41%
Opera Estate Primary 14% 41%
Compassvale Primary 6% 41%
Concord Primary 15% 40%
Greenwood Primary 13% 40%
Cedar Primary 27% 40%
CHIJ (Kellock) 25% 40%
Beacon Primary 4% 40%
Junyuan Primary 11% 40%
New Town Primary 11% 40%
Teck Ghee Primary 14% 40%
Changkat Primary 19% 39%
North View Primary 9% 39%
Zhonghua Primary 17% 39%
CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace 23% 39%
Bedok Green Primary 12% 39%
Frontier Primary 4% 38%
Westwood Primary 0% 38%
Casuarina Primary 4% 37%
Yishun Primary 18% 37%
CHIJ Our Lady of the Nativity 19% 36%
Seng Kang Primary 6% 36%
Cantonment Primary 3% 36%
Haig Girls’ 20% 36%
Meridien Primary 12% 35%
Boon Lay Garden Primary 7% 35%
Jing Shan Primary 14% 35%
Palm View Primary 1% 35%
Pioneer Primary 7% 35%
Ahmad Ibrahim Primary 7% 34%
Xishan Primary 14% 34%
St Margaret’s Primary 20% 34%
Townsville Primary 8% 34%
Ang Mo Kio Primary 8% 34%
Tampines North Primary 6% 34%
Bukit Timah Primary 6% 33%
Lianhua Primary 7% 33%
Loyang Primary 17% 33%
Teck Whye Primary 7% 33%
Fernvale Primary 1% 33%
Punggol View Primary 1% 33%
Si Ling Primary 7% 33%
Anchor Green Primary 4% 32%
Stamford Primary 3% 32%
St Gabriel’s Primary 21% 31%
Naval Base Primary 9% 31%
Marsiling Primary 12% 30%
St Anthony’s Canossian Primary 5% 30%
Riverside Primary 2% 30%
West View Primary 3% 30%
Yio Chu Kang Primary 4% 30%
Yuhua Primary 10% 30%
Damai Primary 7% 29%
North Spring Primary 6% 29%
Dazhong Primary 12% 29%
Queenstown Primary 7% 28%
Bendemeer Primary 10% 27%
Sembawang Primary 4% 27%
Springdale Primary 1% 27%
Xinghua Primary 12% 26%
Da Qiao Primary 8% 25%
Alexandra Primary 0% 25%
Blangah Rise Primary 10% 25%
Park View Primary 0% 24%
Kranji Primary 6% 24%
Punggol Green Primary 1% 24%
East Coast Primary 5% 23%
Marymount Convent 5% 23%
Eunos Primary 8% 22%
Coral Primary 7% 22%
Juying Primary 2% 21%
Angsana Primary 4% 21%
First Toa Payoh Primary 6% 19%
Montfort Junior 7% 19%
Northoaks Primary 4% 19%
Canossa Convent Primary 6% 18%
East View Primary 5% 18%
West Spring Primary 0% 18%
Guangyang Primary 1% 17%
MacPherson Primary 4% 16%
Balestier Hill Primary 1% 14%
Farrer Park Primary 4% 13%
Oasis Primary School 0% 0%
Punggol Cove Primary 0% 0%
Waterway Primary 0% 0%

Updated 10 July 2015:  Predictions

We have seen how the historical data can allow us to predict reasonably accurately the situation at this year’s Phase 2A(1).

Applying the same principles, by comparing the number of places remaining for Phase 2A(2) this year against last year’s actual demand, we find that as many as 8 schools may be oversubscribed in Phase 2A(2) this year, with another 10 schools teetering with less than 10 places left to meet the demand.

At first glance, it would appear that schools such as Henry Park, Nan Hua, Ai Tong and Nanyang would not be able to escape oversubscription.

However, many parents who would have been in Phase 2A(2) may have already applied in the earlier Phase 2A(1) by joining the schools’ alumni.  Hopefully, this could actually bring down the pressure on this year’s demand in 2A(2).

To test the above conjecture, assuming that some parents who might have been in Phase 2A(2) have upgraded themselves to 2A(1), we calculated the change in the number applicants in 2A(1) between 2014 and 2015.  What we found is interesting.

All the schools at the top of the list increased in the applications for 2A(1), with the exception of Catholic High where the applications actually dropped by 2.  At MGS, the applications at 2A(1) is exactly the same as last year’s.  Tao Nan has the highest increase for 2A(1), almost doubling last year’s applications going from 37 up to 70!  This would be food for thought for alumni planning to register at Tao Nan in the coming years.

Assuming that the total pool of parents applying for the whole of Phase 2A remains unchanged, even if we account for the parents who had moved from 2A(2) up to 2A(1), the following schools still run a deficit:

Nan Hua (-17)
Henry Park (-13)
Nanyang (-9)
Yu Neng (-6)

These are the four schools which are VERY likely to be oversubscribed should demand this year at 2A(2) is similar to last year’s.

The other schools that come close to a shortfall are:

Ai Tong (+1)
Catholic High (+4)
Rulang (+5)
Methodhist Girls (+9)

All in all, it is a good idea for parents aiming for schools in the list below to arm themselves with alternative plans should they fail to get into these schools by Phase 2A(2).

School 2015 2A1 Applied 2014 2A1 Applied Increase in 2A1 TUR 2015 2A2 Places 2014 2A2 Applied Shortfall
Henry Park Primary 94 70 24 22 59 -37
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ 97 84 13 0 24 -24
Nan Hua Primary 42 41 1 37 55 -18
Ai Tong 98 82 16 34 49 -15
Nanyang Primary 90 85 5 55 69 -14
Red Swastika 59 35 24 38 48 -10
Yu Neng Primary 8 5 3 53 62 -9
Fairfield Methodist Primary 54 35 19 52 58 -6
Rulang Primary 33 23 10 63 68 -5
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) 93 77 16 45 44 1
Tao Nan 70 37 33 65 64 1
Catholic High 97 99 -2 30 24 6
Temasek Primary 30 19 11 61 55 6
Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) 60 60 0 30 21 9
Rosyth 34 26 8 78 63 15
Radin Mas Primary 19 6 13 83 67 16