2015 P1 Registration Phase 2B

to
 

(a) For a child whose parent has joined the primary school as a parent volunteer not later than 1 July 2014 and has given at least 40 hours of voluntary service to the school by 30 June 2015

(b) For a child whose parent is a member endorsed by the church/clan directly connected with the primary school

(c) For a child whose parent is endorsed as an active community leader

Announcement of Results:

By Friday, 24 July 2015

Update 21 July 2015:  End Phase 2B Analysis

Phase 2B has just ended, and 22 schools are over-subscribed, with one school having just enough places to meet demand.

ACS Junior overtook Tao Nan and Nan Chiau to become the most oversubscribed school for Phase 2B this year.  The other surprise is that Henry Park managed to escape oversubscription.  It appears that there were 2 withdrawals from the earlier Phases from Henry Park, and that bumped up the number of places available in Phase 2B by 1.  That was just enough to save the applicants from the uncertainty of oversubscription.

Other than that, the rest of the schools were pretty much in line with expectation.

Please remember that oversubscription does not automatically mean balloting for affected parents.  We can only know the exact balloting situation after MOE releases the information tomorrow.

School 2010-2014 2014 2015
Average 2B Applicants Std Dev 2B Places 2B Applied 2B Places 2B Applied Actual Shortfall
Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) 77 4 74 75 58 90 -32
Tao Nan 82 20 42 64 28 58 -30
Nan Chiau Primary 82 10 65 96 61 80 -19
Fairfield Methodist Primary 62 12 28 51 31 48 -17
Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) 51 7 28 44 26 41 -15
St Joseph’s Institution Junior 79 2 60 79 57 72 -15
Canberra Primary 47 20 43 57 58 72 -14
Maris Stella High 83 10 55 73 58 71 -13
CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) 65 4 51 64 45 54 -9
Nanyang Primary 39 8 24 32 20 29 -9
Ai Tong 46 15 31 37 20 28 -8
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ 36 4 21 34 21 29 -8
Holy Innocents’ Primary 53 7 42 48 51 59 -8
Kong Hwa 63 16 34 47 46 53 -7
Nan Hua Primary 34 5 21 28 20 27 -7
St Hilda’s Primary 57 8 54 62 44 50 -6
Rulang Primary 31 14 30 30 22 27 -5
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) 30 6 32 35 29 33 -4
St Andrew’s Junior 73 7 56 76 64 67 -3
Catholic High 38 9 22 29 20 22 -2
Rosyth 45 7 28 44 37 39 -2
Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary 38 15 62 57 55 56 -1
Henry Park Primary 23 11 21 22 21 21 0

 

Update 20 July 2015:  Day 1 Analysis

At the end of Day 1 of the 2015 Phase 2B Registration Exercise, 13 schools are oversubscribed, with another 20 having less than 20 places left.

Overall, there are no big surprises.  As we had anticipated earlier, Tao Nan (-15) and Nan Chiau (-13) are the most heavily oversubscribed, and we expect these numbers to go up even higher tomorrow.

School 2010-2014 2014 2015 (20 July)
Average 2B Applicants Std Dev 2B Places 2B Applied 2B Places 2B Applied Actual Shortfall
Tao Nan 82 20 42 64 28 43 -15
Nan Chiau Primary 82 10 65 96 61 74 -13
Fairfield Methodist Primary 62 12 28 51 30 42 -12
Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) 51 7 28 44 26 37 -11
Nanyang Primary 39 8 24 32 20 28 -8
St Joseph’s Institution Junior 79 2 60 79 56 64 -8
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) 30 6 32 35 29 36 -7
CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) 65 4 51 64 45 51 -6
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ 36 4 21 34 21 26 -5
Canberra Primary 47 20 43 57 58 62 -4
Ai Tong 46 15 31 37 20 23 -3
Kong Hwa 63 16 34 47 46 49 -3
Rulang Primary 31 14 30 30 22 23 -1
Holy Innocents’ Primary 53 7 42 48 50 49 1
Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary 38 15 62 57 55 54 1
Nan Hua Primary 34 5 21 28 20 18 2
Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) 77 4 74 75 58 55 3
St Hilda’s Primary 57 8 54 62 44 41 3
Rosyth 45 7 28 44 37 33 4
Temasek Primary 36 8 25 27 31 26 5
Henry Park Primary 23 11 21 22 20 14 6
Catholic High 38 9 22 29 20 13 7
Maris Stella High 83 10 55 73 58 48 10
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary 54 14 42 41 50 40 10
Maha Bodhi 55 6 50 58 52 41 11
Chongfu Primary 81 13 56 63 56 44 12
Hong Wen 57 11 47 63 39 27 12
St Andrew’s Junior 73 7 56 76 63 51 12
Yu Neng Primary 23 2 21 25 21 9 12
Red Swastika 21 7 26 16 20 7 13
Pasir Ris Primary 29 7 31 41 37 23 14
Anderson Primary 26 4 33 20 31 16 15
Horizon 13 15 67 38 40 24 16
South View Primary 26 10 37 27 39 19 20
Keming Primary 24 6 45 24 47 26 21
St Anthony’s Primary 39 10 65 49 59 38 21
Pei Chun Public 52 11 36 40 52 30 22
River Valley Primary 40 12 45 22 40 18 22
Xinmin Primary 11 3 39 12 29 6 23
CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel 38 8 48 28 44 20 24
Chongzheng Primary 13 5 36 14 37 12 25
Mee Toh 66 7 59 61 67 42 25
St Stephen’s 55 6 62 47 56 31 25
Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary 31 5 28 31 45 19 26
Admiralty Primary 40 6 59 41 49 22 27
Ngee Ann Primary 25 8 52 35 54 27 27
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ 73 15 71 57 73 46 27
Rivervale Primary 35 3 59 34 61 34 27
Poi Ching 34 7 54 31 58 29 29
Gongshang Primary 34 9 49 28 45 15 30
St Gabriel’s Primary 28 7 50 40 52 22 30
Yangzheng Primary 16 8 41 22 50 20 30
CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace 46 6 62 42 55 23 32
Northland Primary 38 13 52 27 53 21 32
St Margaret’s Primary 40 14 69 51 69 36 33
Innova Primary 16 7 48 25 53 19 34
Jiemin Primary 6 5 40 9 41 7 34
Radin Mas Primary 37 16 22 22 45 11 34
White Sands Primary 17 6 45 17 46 12 34
CHIJ Our Lady of the Nativity 53 5 75 47 77 42 35
Jurong Primary 18 7 47 20 44 9 35
Cedar Primary 1 1 39 0 36 0 36
Raffles Girls’ Primary 40 17 62 21 52 16 36
CHIJ (Kellock) 31 6 65 37 60 23 37
Fengshan Primary 3 1 45 1 42 5 37
Yew Tee Primary 23 9 70 21 51 14 37
De La Salle 53 8 68 56 68 29 39
Loyang Primary 0 1 69 0 40 0 40
Bukit Panjang Primary 33 19 39 7 45 4 41
Compassvale Primary 31 12 68 36 71 29 42
CHIJ (Katong) Primary 47 11 81 39 71 28 43
Huamin Primary 1 1 53 0 44 1 43
Zhangde Primary 8 4 69 12 61 18 43
Endeavour Primary 24 8 61 32 52 8 44

Update 17 July 2015:  Predictions

As we move towards the final stage of the P1 Registration exercise for 2015 for some parents to enjoy priority registration before the free-for-all stage, 7 schools have already dispensed all seats other than the 40 places which were reserved for later Phases.  Once again, we compare the numbers between 2015 and 2014 in an attempt to understand the potential competitiveness of Phase 2B.

The table below shows the schools which are at the highest risk of oversubscription for Phase 2B in 2015.  We have updated the table to include the average applications in Phase 2B for the schools in the years from 2010 to 2014, to give a better understanding of the historical fluctuations of the application rate year on year.

The standard deviation measures the variance of the application rate from the average.  Within 1 standard deviation, we can be confident that 68% of the population will fall under the range of values.  For example, if you look at the numbers for St Joseph Institute which has an average application rate of 79 and a standard deviation of 2, we can be confident that there is a 68% chance that the next application rate will fall between 77 and 81.  There is also a 95% chance that the next application rate will fall between 2 standard deviations, ie. between 75 and 83.

At the top of the table is Tao Nan, which has an exceptionally high take up rate so far, leaving only 28 places for Phase 2B as opposed to 42 places last year.  Given that it was oversubscribed last year with an application rate of 64, if the demand is similar this year, there is no way Tao Nan can escape oversubscription in Phase 2B.  Incidentally, the average application rate for Tao Nan is 82, with a high standard deviation of 20.  The drop in application rate in the recent years is probably due to the measures taken by Tao Nan‘s Principal to control the number of applicants in Phase 2B since 2010.

The schools in the table from Tao Nan down to Kong Hwa are in the same predicament.  All of them, except for Kuo Chuan Presbyterian, were oversubscribed last year, and the number of places this year for Phase 2B are mostly lower or similar, with the exception of a handful of schools (Fairfield Methodist, Maris Stella, St. Andrew’s, Rosyth, Maha Bohdi, Pasir Ris, and Kong Hwa).  Unfortunately, even for these schools which did manage to increase their available seats for Phase 2B, the increase is not enough to get them out of the danger zone.

Some schools which were oversubscribed last year, such as Holy Innocents, Temasek Primary, Mee Toh, Pei Chun and Singapore Chinese Girls’, can breathe a little easier.  The number of places they have in Phase 2B this year should be enough to handle the demand.

Good luck to parents who are registering in Phase 2B.  Remember that you still have another chance in Phase 2C if you fail to get a place by Phase 2B.

School 2010-2014 2B Applications 2014 2015
Average Std Dev 2B Places 2B Applied 2B Places Projected Shortfall
Tao Nan 82 20 42 64 28 -36
Nan Chiau Primary 82 10 65 96 61 -35
Hong Wen 57 11 47 63 39 -24
St Joseph’s Institution Junior 79 2 60 79 56 -23
Fairfield Methodist Primary 62 12 28 51 30 -21
CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) 65 4 51 64 45 -19
St Hilda’s Primary 57 8 54 62 43 -19
Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) 51 7 28 44 26 -18
Ai Tong 46 15 31 37 20 -19
Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) 77 4 74 75 58 -17
Maris Stella High 83 10 55 73 58 -15
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ 36 4 21 34 21 -13
St Andrew’s Junior 73 7 56 76 63 -13
Nanyang Primary 39 8 24 32 20 -12
Catholic High 38 9 22 29 20 -9
Nan Hua Primary 34 5 21 28 20 -8
Rulang Primary 31 14 30 30 22 -8
Chongfu Primary 81 13 56 63 56 -7
Rosyth 45 7 28 44 37 -7
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) 30 6 32 35 29 -6
Maha Bodhi 55 6 50 58 52 -6
Pasir Ris Primary 29 7 31 41 37 -4
Yu Neng Primary 23 2 21 25 21 -4
Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary 38 15 62 57 54 -3
Henry Park Primary 23 11 21 22 20 -2
Kong Hwa 63 16 34 47 46 -1
Canberra Primary 47 20 43 57 58 1
Holy Innocents’ Primary 53 7 42 48 50 2
Horizon 13 15 67 38 40 2
Temasek Primary 36 8 25 27 31 4
Red Swastika 21 7 26 16 20 4
Mee Toh 66 7 59 61 67 6
Admiralty Primary 40 6 59 41 49 8
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary 54 14 42 41 50 9
St Stephen’s 55 6 62 47 56 9
St Anthony’s Primary 39 10 65 49 59 10
Anderson Primary 26 4 33 20 31 11
South View Primary 26 10 37 27 39 12
De La Salle 53 8 68 56 68 12
Pei Chun Public 52 11 36 40 52 12
St Gabriel’s Primary 28 7 50 40 52 12
CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace 46 6 62 42 55 13
Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary 31 5 28 31 45 14
CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel 38 8 48 28 44 16
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ 73 15 71 57 73 16
Gongshang Primary 34 9 49 28 45 17
Xinmin Primary 11 3 39 12 29 17
River Valley Primary 40 12 45 22 40 18
St Margaret’s Primary 40 14 69 51 69 18
Ngee Ann Primary 25 8 52 35 54 19
Endeavour Primary 24 8 61 32 52 20